Meta is reportedly developing a new AI model codenamed “Avocado,” signaling a potential departure from its long-standing commitment to open-source AI. The project, emerging from an elite team within Meta’s AI Superintelligence Labs, could represent CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s biggest strategic pivot yet in the race for AI supremacy. While details remain scarce, the model’s proprietary nature would mark a sharp break from the Llama series that positioned Meta as an open-source leader.
Avocado: A Closed Model Ambition
Avocado is being developed by “TBD,” a specialized unit led by Meta’s Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang, who advocates for closed systems over public releases. Slated for 2026 launch, the model aims to compete directly with proprietary powerhouses from OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Unlike Llama’s freely available weights and code, Avocado may remain internal, prioritizing commercial applications and competitive edges over community access.
This shift aligns with Zuckerberg’s recent rhetoric tempering open-source enthusiasm. Earlier statements emphasized leadership in public models while reserving “not everything” for proprietary use. Safety concerns around superintelligence further justify selective disclosure, allowing Meta tighter control over deployment and fine-tuning.
Troubled Path from Llama 4
Avocado emerges amid Llama 4 struggles. The anticipated “Behemoth” release faced months of delays, with internal discussions exploring abandonment. Developers criticized available Llama 4 variants for underwhelming performance, eroding momentum from earlier successes. These setbacks accelerated Meta’s strategic reevaluation, pushing resources toward closed innovation.
Organizational turbulence accompanied the pivot. Meta culled hundreds from its Fundamental AI Research (FAIR) team, reallocating talent to superintelligence pursuits. Longtime Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun, a vocal open-source proponent skeptical of large language models, departed after 12 years—timing that underscores shifting priorities.
Meta’s AI Evolution Timeline
| Year | Key Event | Open-Source Stance | Investment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Llama launches | Full commitment | Initial models |
| 2024 | “Open Source is Path Forward” memo | Strong advocacy | Scale AI acquisition |
| 2025 | Llama 4 delays, FAIR layoffs | Tempered (“not everything”) | $600B commitment |
| 2026 | Avocado planned | Proprietary shift | Superintelligence focus |
Strategic Pressures Driving Change
Zuckerberg’s competitive anxiety fuels the reversal. OpenAI’s ChatGPT dominance, Google’s Gemini integration, and Anthropic’s enterprise wins expose Llama’s commercialization gaps. Open-sourcing top models cedes advantage to rivals who build profitable products atop Meta’s free research. Avocado positions Meta to capture direct revenue through APIs, enterprise licensing, and platform integrations.
The $600 billion multi-year investment underscores stakes. Massive data center builds and talent acquisitions like Scale AI signal Zuckerberg views AI as Facebook’s existential bet. Proprietary control enables monetization while mitigating risks of adversarial use or competitive replication.
Industry Ripple Effects
Meta’s pivot reverberates across AI ecosystems. Llama’s open weights democratized access, spawning thousands of fine-tunes and applications. Avocado’s closure could fragment progress, favoring well-funded incumbents over startups reliant on public models. Developers may migrate to alternatives like Mistral or xAI’s Grok.
Open-source advocates decry the betrayal—Zuckerberg’s 2024 manifesto positioned Meta as counterweight to closed giants. Now mirroring them, Meta risks alienating the community it cultivated. LeCun’s exit amplifies perceptions of ideological retreat.
Commercial vs. Community Tradeoffs
Proprietary models offer advantages:
– Tighter safety guardrails
– Enterprise customization
– Direct revenue streams
– Competitive differentiation
Yet open-source yielded Meta unparalleled influence—papers cited globally, developer loyalty, rapid iteration via community feedback. Avocado tests whether commercial viability justifies lost goodwill.
Zuckerberg’s calculus weighs short-term gains against long-term ecosystems. Success hinges on Avocado outperforming rivals while rebuilding trust through hybrid approaches—perhaps tiered releases or developer previews.
Future of Meta AI
Avocado launches amid intensifying rivalry. OpenAI’s o1 reasoning breakthroughs, Google’s multimodal Gemini 2.0, and Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 set benchmarks Meta must clear. Proprietary focus buys agility but demands flawless execution.
The pivot reflects maturing AI economics: free research phases yield to monetization. Meta joins Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple in balancing innovation with profitability. Whether Avocado catalyzes dominance or sparks backlash will define Zuckerberg’s AI legacy—proprietary power versus open collaboration’s enduring promise.
